Wednesday through the Weekend

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Wednesday 4/20/2016

Highs 75-83º. High clouds will be around for most of the day. A backdoor cold front slid through this morning which brought gusty winds this morning. Overall a nice day cooler and less humid than our Tuesday. Winds out of the northeast at 5-10 mph. (Be on the lookout for a great sunset.) Moving into the evening clouds will thin, lending to cool and clear conditions overnight. Lows will range from 50 to 54ºF.

Thursday 04/21/2016

Highs 74º in the mountains to 77º in the Piedmont. Mostly cloudy with peeks of sunshine throughout the day. Another nice day, it will be slightly more humid. Winds will shift from out of the north to out of the southwest by the afternoon at 10-15 mph. Clouds will thicken into the evening hours and we will remain overcast overnight. Showers will threaten late in the overnight hours. Lows 55-58ºF.

Friday 04/22/2016

Highs 70-73º, Cloudy with showers around for most of the day. Rain will be inconsistent and sporadic. We need rain and the best chance for some good rain is in the form of very scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Winds will be out of the south at 5-10 mph. It will be noticeably more humid than the past few days and most will deal with at least some rain. Overnight showers will linger, with that we will also hold onto the clouds. This will limit the amount we can cool off overnight. Lows 52-55ºF

High Pressure in Control for now…

A little week in review for you. Last week Colorado got their snowstorm( I will post totals below), severe weather happened in northern Texas (major hailstorms and a few tornados), there were not 1 or 2 major earthquakes around the world but 3. Here in North Carolina we had a rather lovely week.  For the first half of this week it should stay fairly nice.

5 day Forecast

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North Carolina

We have been blessed with a dominant high pressure system that has controlled our weather the past 5 days. For the first part of this week we will continue to see the high pressure system flex its muscles. It will begin to weaken and be pushed out as we move toward Friday. A little rain can be expected as well. I am not expecting much at this point so enjoy your work week!


As I stated last Monday this is the time of year we expect the big snow storms in Colorado. That being said it is getting late so this one is a bit unusual. Storms in a blocking pattern, as we have in place currently, like to spin up and intensif on the east side of the Rockies. This is commonly referred to as a Lee Side low. Well the folks in Colorado just got a great taste of what a lee side low can do. Some places in the foothills saw up to 40″ of snow. Check out some of the totals here.

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There was even a trained spotter reporting 51.3″ of snow.Screen Shot 2016-04-18 at 2.47.44 PM

Tuesday Rain update

This week will taut warmer weather for us in North Carolina. The headlines for the nation will be the return of severe weather and the possibility of a big snowstorm in Colorado. I will be posting two videos this week, Monday and Wednesday, so make sure to check back in for those.

Rain Tuesday looks to be a lock, or is it? I’m 100% sure that it will rain I’m just not sold on us getting a lot of rain. The area of precipitation will be moving in from out of the west tomorrow and arrive in the early morning hours Tuesday. We should see light consistent rain most of the day. This could stack up to be some much needed rainfall for us. Here’s what the top models are saying we will get through Tuesday night.

ECMWF or European model
ECMWF or European model
GFS or American model
GFS or American model

I am hoping that these totals verify, we do need the rain. I am however a bit skeptical with dry air in place over the Carolinas. I think it may interact with the precipitation and and limit the amount of moisture we get into the area.

Today and Tonight 4/10/2016

Highs 60-63ºF, still chilly with dry air in place, cool crisp breeze. Nothing compared to yesterday. Winds NW 5-10 mph. Overnight lows 30-37º with frost and freeze possible. Clear and calm conditions. This may be the last night you have to cover your plants!

Monday 4/11/2016

Highs 70-75ºF, warm and quite the change from this weekend. Humidity will be on the rise. Breezy winds SSW 10-15 mph bringing in the moist air and humidity. Clouds will be on the increase in the afternoon and thickening into the evening hours. Overnight lows 40-43º , winds light out of the south at 5-10º mph. Cloudy with rain arriving late

Tuesday 4/12/2016

Highs 60-64ºF, cooler and wet. Shallow cool air will be sliding in from the Northeast and setting up a small amount of Cold Air Damming (CAD). Rain should be consistent, light to moderate most of the day with a few breaks in the action from time to time. Winds NE 5-12 mph. Overnight lows 45-47ºF, cloudy with showers. Clearing late.


Moody Weather. Cold, Warm, Cool, Then wet.

Piedmont NC

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As advertised today has been breezy and cooler than Thursday was. A passing cloud from time to time and if you get into the mountains you could see a shower or two. After a hard freeze tonight the next thing to watch is Tuesday. Tuesday is going to be a wet cool day but we might not get the rain we need. The track of the low is going to follow an old cold front draped across the area but the low itself might fall apart as it runs into dry air across the Carolinas. Therefore I’m not sold on a wash out for Tuesday but I’ll keep you posted.

Projected Precip totals from the GFS and ECMWF through Tuesday night provided by:

GFS Forecast
GFS Forecast
ECMWF Forecast
ECMWF Forecast

Saturday 4/9/2016

Not much change from yesterday’s forecast. Only thing to note is that it’s going to be very dry and there will likely be a red flag warning. Humidity will be 10 to 20 percent. Highs 47-54ºF, breezy. Winds out of the NW at 10-15 mph. Mostly clear with some passing clouds from time to time. Lows 30-35º. Frost and freeze likely. Mostly clear.

Sunday 4/10/2016

Highs 58-63ºF. Sunny and clear. Winds 10-15 mph out of the west. It will still be a cool day even with the warmer temperatures because of the dry air and high pressure overhead will be mixing down cool and dry air. Lows 37-44ºF, Clear and calm

Monday 4/11/2016

Highs 67-75ºF. Warm and much more humidity. Today will be the opposite of the weekend we will have a south wind calm to 10 mph. Partly cloudy with thickening clouds in the evening. Winds will also be increasing to 15 mph out of the south bring in the warm air ahead of the rain for tuesday. Overnight cloudy with showers late. Lows 48-55ºF


April Cold

April showers brings May flowers; well this weekend’s weather may bring more harm than good. A hard freeze is fast approaching. For those of you with tender plants outdoors, you will need to cover your plants in the overnight hours because we will be seeing several freezes in the next couple of days.

The next three overnight lows:

nam4km_T2m_seus_8 nam4km_T2m_seus_16 namconus_T2m_seus_24

The last 24-hr precipitation for our area. Valid 4/7/2016.

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Forecast (Piedmont, NC)

Today/Tonight, 4/7/2016

Highs 60-65ºF, very windy 15-25 mph increasing into the afternoon gust up to 40 mph. Partly cloudy with increasing clouds later in the evening. Lows 35-40ºF windy, with occasional showers.

Friday 4/8/2016

Highs 50-53ºF , windy. Winds out of the NW 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Mostly cloudy with showers in the morning and clearing in the afternoon. Much cooler today than yesterday. Lows 35-40ºF with winds dying down to 5-10 mph, then clearing.

Saturday 4/9/2016

Highs 47-54ºF, breezy. Winds out of the NW at 10-15 mph. Mostly clear with some passing clouds from time to time. Lows 30-35º. Frost and freeze likely. Mostly clear.

Wednesday Weather

Today looks to be a wonderful day, unless you have allergies! Right now, tree pollen count is very high and will continue to be until we get some rain to clear it out.

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The good news is that rain is in the forecast. The bad news is that we will have to watch out for severe weather. Rain will be moving into our area Thursday evening, and it is likely that a line of storms could make their way into our area early Friday morning. The storm that will bring rain to the Carolinas is currently dumping feet of snow in Colorado. Many places in Colorado experienced temperatures in the 70’s and are experiencing snow (as shown in the picture below) a day later!

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This potent spring storm is also doing something very rare; it’s producing lots of Thundersnow!

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Tonight, if you are lucky, you can track live storm-chasers who will be chasing tornadoes and Thundersnow. Tune into to check it out.

Now to weather in the Carolinas! This storm system will move off to our north, but we will still have to deal with the cold front that will sweep across our area Thursday night with lingering showers Friday morning.

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As far as the severe weather threat goes, my biggest concern will be for strong winds. However, if you are planning to be to west of the Carolinas on Thursday, please stay alert for severe weather. Strong storms with hail, strong winds, and even an isolated tornado could be possible.

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Asheville’s 5 Day Forecast

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Statesville 5 Day Forecast

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Friday great, Weekend wet?

Friday will be cooler than Thursday but not as cool as the weekend. As we continue to get colder air moving in from the west, we also have a pulse of energy moving in from the south. This will start to organize itself in the Gulf of Mexico Friday, and will take its aim toward the Carolinas. Friday’s highs, for the mountains, will be in the 60’s, while some lucky few in the Piedmont may hit 70. As we move throughout the day, you will start to notice some high clouds moving in. This will only put a slight damper on what, otherwise, should be a beautiful day. Saturday will be much more cloudy due to weekend storms moving in by the afternoon. For the most part, Saturday will be dry with highs only in the mid 50’s. Showers will be arriving overnight. Sunday will be the coldest and wettest day of the weekend. For most, rain totals will be less than a half inch, but with the colder temps, Sunday is likely to be a nasty day.  In the Mountains, highs will be in the upper 30’s to low 40’s, and in the Piedmont highs will likely be in the upper 40’s.

A few things continue to remain uncertain as we continue to watch this weekend forecast.  Temperatures will be cool, but just how low will they get? This answer depends on the track and strength of of the low. The low will ultimately determine just how cold temperatures will get. Higher elevation mountain areas will likely see snow fall, especially on the back side of this storm. The most interesting part of this set up is a little piece of vorticity that lags behind the coastal low. Since these two pieces of energy are not going to phase together, the question remains: if enough energy is there, could we see some lower elevation snow? Right now, I’m thinking no, not for the Mountains. The Northeast needs to closely monitor this storm as it continues to trend further east. This could mean a significant snowstorm for the Northeast.

Below I have posted the NAM4 0Z model run. NAM stands for North American Model, the 4 is the resolution (4km), and the 0Z is the time the model is ran (in this case, midnight Thursday). The NAM tends to over-do moisture, so don’t get caught up in the amount of rain. However, notice that the heavier rain stays to the south and that the coldest air is confined from the Mountains to mid-Virginia and the Northeast. When you’re watching the model run, the first piece of energy is the low coming off of the Gulf and making its way up the coast. Notice at the end of the model run, the second piece of energy is the upper-level support represented by precipitation moving into Tennessee from the mid-west.


The overall story is that Saturday night and Sunday will be breezy and wet. There could be traces of snow, especially in the mountains and the Northeast. Sunday will be cold!  Sunday night we will have a freeze, so if you have tender plants cover them or bring them inside. However, there is some good news! Next Sunday looks to be the beginning of a warming trend that will continue throughout the week. Below is your five day forecast.


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Wednesday Weather Update

Big changes coming!

Is the early spring is to good to be true? Unfortunately the answer is, yes! A cool down is coming, and it will start after this wonderful day. A cold frontal zone will slide into our area from the west. It will mostly be a dry front, but I will not count out a sprinkle or two for some of the mountain areas. The front will bring more seasonal air with it. This will take us back to reality. It is still technically winter. How cold will it get, and did someone say snow? Make sure to check out the video for full analysis and the five day forecast.